Right, now for how ridiculous that roll was.
In Fire Emblem, everything is done through a random number generator (RNG). While like most rpgs, this rolling is done on a basis of 100, so literally 100 outcomes are possible for a single roll. The hit-stat isn't really what percentage chance there is for the unit to hit, but what the average of two rolls must be less than for the unit to hit.
So for a hit of 86, the two rolls must average to 85 or less. For a hit of 100, the rolls must average to 99 or less, and since the number line goes from 0-99 (100 individual numbers), that means a hit guarantee. Same with 0; in order to hit, the roll must average to less than 0, which is impossible.
Anyway, the critical roll is a third roll, based on the success of the first two. That is literally a percentage; if the crit is 9, a roll of 0-8 will make it so.
(Oh frill, I need a calculator for this.)
So in order to determine the actual chance to even hit in the first place, I have to figure a sum of probabilities—the prob that both rolls will be less than 86, the prob that the first roll will be greater or equal to 86 AND the second roll is less enough that the average is less than 86, and the prob that the first roll is less and the second is greater but the average is still less than 86.
This is where math is evil. I swear to you, I love Calculus, but probability is Satanic.
SCREW IT (after trying to remember how to do it) IT TAKES TOO LONG GRAAWWWWWW
Anyway. So you have this chance which I'll assume FOR NOW is about 77%. Then I have a 9% critical roll, and then I have to multiply .77 by .09, which is about something stupid as well. 0.0693, or less than 7%. So I had a 7% chance to get a critical roll in that case.
On the first roll.
On the second roll, the whole thing resets, basically, because the to-hit and the critical are independent of the first set. So 7% again.
Combine those two, and I have a 0.00480249 probability, or a chance of LESS THAN HALF A PERCENT, to critical both times.
...assuming I'm operating within actual probability parameters, and not violating some stupid rule that I can't be bothered to remember.
I'm just disappointed I didn't send in Hector first. I've seen a Druid critical, and I've seen Hector critical, but with the weapon he was using his sprite changes, so I've never seen Hector + Armads (the axe) critical.
SO YES. Now back to transcribing the game, using Lyndis's newly-unlocked hard mode to do so. (And I have to beat Hector's story on normal before I can even access it on hard. GAH.)
